In-Depth Analysis: Could Gold Reach $3,700 by 2026?
Are Markets Undergoing a Gold Valuation Revolution?
Amid major geopolitical and economic shifts, some analysts argue that Wall Street is still using outdated models to assess gold, models that no longer reflect today’s global financial dynamics. One of the boldest voices is that of Bernstein, whose July 2025 report projects that gold could surge to $3,700 per ounce by 2026.
1. The Limits of Traditional Valuation Models
For decades, Wall Street has relied on three key indicators to value gold:
Real interest rates
The strength of the U.S. dollar
Headline inflation (CPI)
What’s the issue?
These models assume structural stability in the global financial system—a condition that no longer holds true.
They overlook emerging non-monetary drivers such as:
A growing global shift away from the U.S. dollar.
Heightened geopolitical tensions (trade wars, energy crises, BRICS alternatives).
Central banks becoming major gold buyers, not just investors.
2. Central Banks: The New Non-Speculative Gold Buyers
One of Bernstein’s strongest arguments is the unprecedented buying spree by central banks:
In 2023 and 2024 alone, central banks bought over 1,100 tons of gold annually, the highest level in decades.
China, Russia, Turkey, and India are leading the movement to diversify reserves and reduce dollar dependence.
“Gold is no longer just an investment asset. It’s evolving into a de facto reserve currency for emerging economies.”
3. A New Geopolitical & Monetary Landscape
Fragmentation of the global financial system is weakening the dollar’s dominance.
Sanctions on countries like Russia and Iran are pushing them to rely more on gold for sovereign asset protection.
Global sovereign debt is at record highs, undermining trust in government bonds and boosting gold’s safe haven status.
4. Gold vs. Stocks and Cryptocurrencies
In today’s market:
Equities and cryptocurrencies are facing heightened volatility.
Gold is increasingly viewed as a non-correlated asset, making it highly attractive in wealth preservation strategies.
With the risk of a global recession looming in 2025–2026, investors are expected to flock back to gold as a safe store of value.
5. Bernstein’s Scenario: Why $3,700?
Bernstein’s Updated Thesis:
Continued aggressive gold buying by central banks.
Ongoing erosion of confidence in sovereign debt instruments.
A sustained weakening of the U.S. dollar.
If these trends persist, Bernstein believes the fair value of gold will lie between:
$3,300 and $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2026.
Strategic Takeaways
Ignoring the structural shifts in the global financial order means misreading the future.
Gold has evolved beyond being a simple inflation hedge. It is now:
A geopolitical asset
A reserve diversification tool
A hedge against deteriorating trust in Western debt
Investors clinging to outdated models may miss what could be a generational buying opportunity for gold.
