Bitcoin’s Bull Run Continues: What’s Next After $118K?
Professional Analysis: Bitcoin’s Surge on July 11, 2025
1. All-time high above $118,000
Bitcoin reached a new record—peaking around $118,860—driven by a perfect storm of momentum buying, ETF inflows, and a short squeeze that liquidated over $1 billion in bearish positions.
2. ETF inflows continue to accelerate
In early July alone, institutional onboarding into spot BTC ETFs surged. Net inflows exceeded $1 billion on July 7, with approximately $217 million on July 9, largely via BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC . Over the past month, inflows reached record levels—approximately 18,476 BTC within seven days .
3. Institutional accumulation & shrinking floating supply
Whales and institutions continue hoarding BTC, drawing supply off exchanges. On-chain data shows sustained outflows for 98 straight days and reallocation by large addresses, boosting scarcity pressure.
4. Macro and policy tailwinds
Anticipated Fed rate cuts (specifically a ~25 bps cut by September) support risk assets .
U.S. regulatory clarity: Senate passage of the GENIUS Act, introduction of the CLARITY Act, and broader pro-crypto legislation during “Crypto Week” create a conducive environment .
5. Technical breakout in progress
Bitcoin decisively broke resistance around $108,400–$114,000. Analysts warn that a sustained move above $114K could open the door to much higher targets ($135K, $143K, or even $200K) .
🔍 Summary Table
| Category | Key Insight |
|---|---|
| Price Level | Testing new highs (~$118–119K) amid strong upside momentum. |
| ETF Inflows | Record institutional inflows in July; BlackRock & Fidelity dominate. |
| Supply Dynamics | On‑chain data signals scarcity due to long-term holdings. |
| Macro Trends | Fed easing anticipated; regulatory clarity boosting sentiment. |
| Technical Outlook | Breaking key resistance; primary targets from $120K–$200K. |
Outlook & Potential Risks
Near‑term targets:
$120K is within reach if current inflow and policy momentum persist .
A break above $114K could lead to $135K–$143K acceleration .
Medium-term scenarios:
Some analysts project $200K by late 2025 . Moody optimists—like HashKey Capital—foresee a $1 million Bitcoin by 2026, assuming sustained macro-liquidity tailwinds.
Risks to monitor:
A stronger-than-expected U.S. dollar or delayed Fed cuts could undermine rally momentum.
Renewed regulatory caution or geopolitical shocks might introduce volatility and cap gains.
Final Take
Bitcoin’s latest surge is not driven by short-lived hype—it’s underpinned by structural shifts: rising institutional adoption, shrinking liquid supply, favorable macro conditions, and smoother regulatory frameworks. The short-term focus remains on breaching $120K. But deeper accumulation trends and technical breakouts could propel BTC toward $135K–$200K by late 2025. Mid-to-long-term bulls are eyeing even higher milestones.
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