Liverpool and Arsenal Well-Positioned to Take PSG’s Throne, but Doubts Linger Over Real Madrid and Man City
Some of the empirical foundations for ranking teams this season:
The Opta supercomputer simulating the competition ~10,000 times gives probabilities such as:
Liverpool: ~20.4% chance of winning. Opta Analyst
Arsenal: ~16.0% Opta Analyst
PSG (defending champs): ~12.1% Opta Analyst
Barcelona and Manchester City both ~8.4% each. Opta Analyst
Real Madrid somewhat lower, ~5.8% in those projections. Opta Analyst
Fixture difficulty (league-phase draw) is also a factor: PSG, for example, are among those with the toughest draws. SI+1
Transfer activity, squad depth, managerial stability / coaching pedigree, recent form (domestic + European) are also part of how the power rankings are being influenced. FourFourTwo+2Opta Analyst+2
Team-by-Team Analysis
Here’s how each of the main contenders shape up, what their strengths are, where the doubts are, and what would need to go right (or wrong) for them.
| Team | Strengths / Upside | Weaknesses / Risks | Key “Make or Break” Factors |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSG (defending champions) | They have experience now (won the title in 2024-25), a top-class attacking talent pool, momentum, and Luis Enrique has expressed confidence even with some injury problems. The experience of going all the way is valuable. Reuters+2Opta Analyst+2 | Their fixture difficulty is high. Injuries (some key players already out or likely to be) could hurt. Also the mental / physical toll of defending a title is substantial. Opponents know them better now. Depth may be tested. | Keeping the squad healthy; navigating tough fixtures (especially away games); psychological resilience (second season syndrome); avoiding complacency. |
| Liverpool | In simulations and bookmaker odds, they are top pick. Strong transfer market, good squad depth; their performance in league-phase last year was excellent. They tend to perform well in Europe under pressure. Opta Analyst+1 | Consistency in big matches has sometimes slipped; pressure matches (especially away) will test them; injuries or rotation risk. Also, the accumulation of travelling + domestic schedule could bite. | Handling crunch matches (knockouts), avoiding fatigue, keeping defensive solidity in tougher matchups, and leveraging home advantage well. |
| Arsenal | Huge boost from transfer investment; good defensive record under Arteta; last season they reached the semis. They are now seen as a serious contender with improved depth. El País+1 | Lack of Champions League final experience could count; squad depth still under stress; pressure on players to deliver, and mental resilience in knockout rounds is still unproven at the very top. | Staying injury-free among key players; strong showing in group/league phase to get favourable matchup; managing game management under pressure; improving in two-leg ties. |
| Barcelona | Very strong attacking numbers; a manager (Hansi Flick) with pedigree; recent domestic form solid; they can score goals and put pressure on opponents. They also were among top scorers in UCL last season. Opta Analyst+1 | Defensive frailties sometimes; occasional inconsistency (especially away); squad changes and integration of new players can take time; must avoid complacency. Also, facing tough draws means less margin for error. | Sharpening defensive stability; maintaining high intensity across two legs; avoiding slip-ups in the group/league phase; making tactical adjustments away from home. |
| Manchester City | Historically strong in knockout competitions; experience and quality throughout the squad; depth; managerial experience. They have proven ability to edge out tight games under pressure. | Last season was somewhat underwhelming in Europe; expectations high, so margin for error low. Also, opponent draw / form dips could hurt. Their attacking mojo will need to be consistent. | Reclaiming psychological edge; staying fit; avoiding overreliance on star individuals; wins in tricky away games; handling pressure matches. |
| Real Madrid | Unmatched European pedigree; knowledge of how to win in knockout stages; good squad, especially in midfield, and under a relatively new manager (Xabi Alonso), which could bring fresh energy. | There are doubts: sometimes lack of coherence in big pressing games; transitions defensively; possible overestimation of experience if form is not there; injuries. Also, psychological weight of expectation is heavy. | Getting peaks in performance at the right times; managing matches where they are under pressure; integrating younger or less tested players; avoiding collapse in key ties. |
Synthesis: Who’s Best-Placed, Who Are The Wildcards
Putting together the data + the qualitative factors, here’s a ranking in terms of who appears best positioned right now to win, and what might upset that order.
Liverpool feels the most balanced in terms of probability + momentum. High chance in simulations, good squad, seems to have gotten over some ya-ya of recent failures in Europe.
Arsenal are close behind. They have fewer recent Champions League trophies, but the trajectory is upward. If they can avoid injuries and keep their core fit, they have a shot.
PSG are in the mix — defending champions always get more margin for error, but they arguably face tougher obstacles (fixture load, expectations).
Barcelona have the attacking power to trouble anyone, but defensive lapses could prove costly.
Manchester City, despite pedigree, seem a step below in current projections — good chance, but they’ll need a strong clean run.
Real Madrid — lowest of this top group in terms of probability, but never count them out in Europe. Their ability to pull through high-pressure matches makes them dangerous.
Beyond that top 6, there are long-shots / outsiders (Chelsea, Bayern, perhaps others) who could make noise.
Doubts Over Real Madrid & Manchester City
Since you specifically mentioned doubts over Real Madrid and Man City, it’s worth unpacking those:
Real Madrid: They’ve got the historical advantage and know how to win European knockout ties, but there are question marks over whether the current squad can combine consistency + intensity across the season. Also, managerial transition (Alonso) brings tactical recalibration; performances in La Liga or other competitions matter for confidence. Defensive lapses or off-days in big away legs could cost them. Also, failing to dominate in the group/league stage risks tougher draws.
Manchester City: More dependent perhaps on stars performing to peak, and sometimes these seasons (after Champions or good runs) bring complacency, fatigue, or underperformance in away games. If they don’t get early momentum, or if they draw some tricky fixtures badly, they might be vulnerable. Also, as simulations show, their chance is realistic but lower than liver-pool or Arsenal at this moment — indicating some gap (either in current squad form, or structure/tactics) vs. those pushing ahead.
What It Will Take to Dethrone PSG (or for PSG to Stay On Top)
To challenge PSG or to keep PSG on top, the following matter:
Consistency in the League Phase: Strong performances, maximizing home games, avoiding slip-ups against supposedly weaker sides. Every point matters more with the new format.
Depth / Squad Rotation: To survive injuries, fixture congestion. Teams that can rotate well without massive drop off will have advantage.
Knockout Experience / Mental Resilience: Especially teams that have struggled in semis or finals to overcome that barrier.
Tactical Flexibility: Ability to adapt to different styles, especially when under pressure or against teams that park, press, or play counterattacks heavily.
Verdict
Most likely winners (top bets): Liverpool, Arsenal
*Hot threats / capable of upsetting: PSG (if form holds + injuries managed), Barcelona (if defence solidifies)
Those with higher risk of underperforming: Real Madrid and Manchester City (assuming they don’t iron out tactical / consistency issues)
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